Why Bitcoin Price is falling down ?

By Raghav Sawhney

A notable downturn in Bitcoin’s (BTC) value, which briefly dipped below the $64,000 mark, resulted in substantial financial repercussions for investors speculating on an increase in its price. This downturn triggered over $440 million in liquidations among crypto futures traders. Within this context, some investors are now adjusting their expectations, predicting that Bitcoin might further decrease to the $55,000 range in the near term.

Specifically focusing on those who placed long bets on Bitcoin, these individuals faced significant losses totaling $130 million. Moreover, other major cryptocurrencies were not spared from this downturn. Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) collectively accounted for $120 million in long position liquidations, according to information provided by Coinglass.

Analyzing the distribution of these liquidations across trading platforms, Binance emerged as the most impacted, with liquidations on the exchange reaching $212 million. Following closely, OKX experienced $170 million in liquidations, underscoring the widespread effect of the market movement on traders across different platforms. Liquidations, a process where exchanges forcibly close a trader’s leveraged position due to the loss of the initial margin, have been a contributing factor to this downturn. These actions are typically taken when traders fail to meet the required margin for keeping their leveraged positions open, essentially not having enough capital to maintain the trade.

In the past day, significant cryptocurrencies have seen a sharp decline, with some tokens experiencing a drop of up to 11%, according to CoinGecko’s data. Specifically, Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Cardano’s ADA witnessed a decrease of up to 8%. The CoinDesk 20, which tracks the performance of various major cryptocurrencies excluding stablecoins, also recorded an 8% fall.

Amid these market conditions, some traders have voiced their expectations for Bitcoin to potentially drop to around $55,000 in the forthcoming weeks, despite maintaining an optimistic perspective for the long term.

In terms of individual cryptocurrency performance beyond Bitcoin, Ether (ETH)—the crypto with the second-largest market capitalization—has declined by 8%, falling to $3,250. This is a notable decrease from its trading price above $4,000 just last week. Altcoins, or smaller cryptocurrencies, have similarly faced downturns, with Cardano (ADA) dropping 6% and Polygon experiencing a 9% decrease. The downturn was not limited to these larger tokens; meme-inspired cryptocurrencies also saw declines, with Dogecoin (DOGE) falling by 9% and Shiba Inu (SHIB) losing 7% of its value.

Bitcoin’s value began to decline during the late hours of Monday in the U.S., driven by a significant spike in withdrawals from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which reached a record high of over $640 million. While there were incoming funds to other financial products amounting to just below $500 million, the overall market experienced a net loss of $150 million that day.

Bitcoin ETF Flow Table(US$m)

Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a 4% decrease in its value and is now trading above $65,000. This downturn coincides with the sale of GBTC shares reaching unprecedented levels.

Research from BitMEX indicates that the outflows from GBTC were notably high on March 18, totaling $643 million. Further analysis from the investment firm Farside revealed a net withdrawal from bitcoin ETFs overall, amounting to $154 million. Among these ETFs, the iShares bitcoin ETF (IBIT) recorded the highest inflow of $451.5 million, with other products collectively receiving around $36.7 million.

Analysts from Bespoke Investment Group highlighted a significant event where, on BitMex, Bitcoin’s price plummeted to $8,900 overnight. This drop was triggered by a large volume of sell orders amounting to $55.5 million. Considering Bitcoin’s market capitalization surpasses $1 trillion, the analysts pointed out that such a substantial price movement caused by a relatively small sell order raises concerns about the market’s liquidity.

Despite this incident, the sentiment among many in the market regarding Bitcoin’s future prospects remains positive. A key factor contributing to this optimism is the recent approval of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) by U.S. regulatory bodies in January. This approval has sparked a renewed interest in cryptocurrencies, attracting more investments. According to CoinShares, digital asset investment products witnessed a record inflow of $2.9 billion in the last week alone, bringing the total for the year to $13.2 billion.

Since the introduction of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) earlier in the year, GBTC, which has recently transitioned into an ETF, has witnessed significant withdrawals. This trend is largely attributed to its relatively high fees, contributing to downward pressure on bitcoin’s price. As per market sentiment it is evident that another source of selling pressure on bitcoin comes from short-term holders who are capitalizing on the recent price increases to secure profits.

The on-chain analytics company shared a chart illustrating the short-term holder SOPR ratio for Bitcoin (BTC), indicating a significant uptick in profit-taking among investors who have held BTC for less than five months. This movement is described as a notable event by CryptoQuant, occurring only every few years. However, it is cautioned that this alone isn’t a reliable signal indicating the peak of a bull market. This perspective is influenced by factors such as the growing participation of institutional and individual investors in Bitcoin, particularly through the introduction of spot ETFs.

The current price movements suggest a short-term correction within the cryptocurrency market, although it’s not insignificant. Profit-taking by long-term holders could be contributing to this downward trend. Variable liquidity across different trading platforms is also playing a role in injecting volatility into Bitcoin. There have been instances of flash crashes, where the price of an asset briefly plunges well below its usual market value. These flash crashes are typically caused by automated trading algorithms, liquidity mismatches, or an imbalance between buyers and sellers.

Liquidity plays a vital role in markets, allowing assets to be swiftly bought and sold without causing significant price fluctuations. Following the collapse of the FTX exchange in late 2022, crypto liquidity experienced a severe decline. However, the recent surge in digital asset prices has helped restore Bitcoin’s market depth, a crucial indicator of liquidity, back to its levels before the FTX incident, as noted by analysts from the crypto data provider Kaiko in a report on Monday.

Despite this improvement, it’s important to recognize that not all trading platforms offer the same level of liquidity. Variations in liquidity across markets are evident, especially during a period of notable changes for Bitcoin, notably with the introduction of new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These differences in liquidity may contribute to volatile trading conditions and could potentially lead to more sudden price crashes if Bitcoin experiences further selling pressure.

Additionally, Bitcoin is on the cusp of a significant event known as the halving, expected to occur next month. This event will reduce the number of new tokens being created and released into the market, effectively tightening the supply at a time when demand for Bitcoin has been on the rise. This supply squeeze is anticipated to provide further support to Bitcoin’s price levels.